Global crises often unsettle markets. But they can also create openings for investors willing to take a longer view.
That was the message from analysts and investment advisers during a webinar hosted by SBG Securities Uganda Limited, where economists argued that while the escalating conflict in the Middle East may introduce short-term volatility, it could also present opportunities for disciplined investors and policymakers in Uganda.
“Such times can come with a lot of uncertainty,” said Grace Semakula, chief executive of SBG Securities Uganda Limited, the investment and brokerage arm of Stanbic Uganda Holdings Limited.
“But these are not times to panic. They are times to take a patient, long-term view and consistently allocate funds.”
Semakula noted that geopolitical disruptions often create moments when investors can reposition portfolios and identify emerging opportunities, provided they remain focused on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term noise.
A strong starting point
Uganda enters this uncertain period from a position of relative strength. Inflation has remained subdued, economic growth robust and exports particularly gold and coffee have expanded significantly over the past year.
Yet economists caution that global conflict could still ripple through the economy, particularly if the disruption becomes prolonged.
“We might see a protracted conflict,” said Christopher Legilisho, an economist at the Standard Bank Group. “That could weigh on global growth and create spillovers to different countries, including Uganda.”
Central banks are starting to turn cautious. For much of 2024 and early 2025, central banks around the world were preparing to ease monetary policy as inflationary pressures began to ease.
That trajectory may now be less certain. Rising geopolitical tensions have increased the likelihood of higher oil prices and renewed inflationary pressure, prompting policymakers to reassess their approach.
“Because of the conflict, we are starting to see expectations that inflationary pressures could return,” Legilisho said. “Central banks may become more cautious or preventative in their policy stance.”
Uganda’s central bank, Bank of Uganda, has kept its benchmark policy rate steady at 9.75% since October 2024.
If inflation accelerates, analysts say the bank could delay any rate cuts or even tighten policy.
Risks and opportunities
Uganda’s trade links to the Middle East also expose it to disruptions, noted the experts.
Gold exports now the country’s largest export earner are heavily concentrated in that region.
Uganda ships roughly $6 billion worth of gold annually, with about $5.2 billion destined for the United Arab Emirates.
Any interruption to that trade route could temporarily disrupt exporters. “If producers are unable to ship gold to the UAE, refiners and exporters may struggle to find immediate alternative markets,” Legilisho said.
Yet the disruption could also accelerate domestic policy initiatives.
The Bank of Uganda has been preparing to launch a domestic gold purchase programme aimed at strengthening foreign-exchange reserves—a move that could gain urgency if export flows slow.
Energy markets present another layer of complexity.
Higher oil prices would increase Uganda’s import bill in the short term because the country still relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products, much of which originates from the Middle East.
“You could see Uganda’s oil import requirements rise significantly if prices spike,” Legilisho said.
But the longer-term outlook may be more favorable. Uganda expects first oil production from its petroleum sector later this year, which could transform the country’s trade balance over time.
Market volatility already visible
Financial markets have already begun to react. The Ugandan shilling has weakened by roughly 3% since the conflict escalated, and analysts warn that inflation could rise if energy prices climb further.
In an extreme scenario, Legilisho estimates inflation could reach around 8.3%, potentially prompting the central bank to raise interest rates.
Higher borrowing costs would slow credit growth and could temper economic expansion.
Remittances could also be affected. Uganda receives significant inflows from citizens working in the Middle East, and any regional disruption could affect those earnings.
Still, the scale of the impact will depend heavily on how long the conflict lasts.
“If the crisis is resolved within a month, the economic impact would likely be limited,” Legilisho said. “But if it continues for several months, the pressures on growth and inflation could become more significant.”
Looking beyond the turbulence
For investment advisers, the key message is that volatility should be managed rather than feared.
“Even through crisis, there are significant opportunities to explore,” Semakula said. “Our role as an investment partner is to help clients see beyond the immediate noise and make informed, long-term decisions.”
SBG Securities Uganda Limited ended 2025 with more than UGX540 billion in assets under management, adding over 4,000 new clients during the year.
The firm was also recognized by the Capital Markets Authority as Collective Investment Scheme Manager of the Year.
For Uganda’s economy, the coming months may test its resilience. But as Semakula suggested, periods of uncertainty can also reward those prepared to look beyond the immediate horizon.
